CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 14Z WED 14/07 - 06Z THU 15/07 2004
ISSUED: 14/07 14:39Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across the west-Russian hill country and the upper Don Valley and the northern Ukraine

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across an area surrounding the Slight risk area including a larger part of western Russia

General thunderstorms are forecast across ref. convective forecast

SYNOPSIS

ref. convective forecast

DISCUSSION

...MDT risk area...
More than 2000 J/kg MLCAPE was observed by the Kursk and Ryazan 12 soundings. Values beteen 2000 and 3500 J/kg are expected this afternoon and evening over most of the moderate risk area. Very steep low-level lapse rates and high boundary layer moisture result in low LFC's and high CAPE values below 700 hPa. The combination with rather strong 10-15 m/s low-level shear should be sufficient for the formation of a couple of tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Moreover, the large amounts of CAPE are supportive of storms producing large hail and damaging winds.

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